GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Clinical Trials — 2026 Pipeline Tracker

GLP-1 Indications: Approved and in Active Phase 3

Key Phase 3 GLP-1 Trials — Active 2026

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov, Q1 2026. For a live, continuously updated list, set up a DataLookout alert.

Semaglutide: From Diabetes Blockbuster to Multi-Indication Platform

Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk) is the most commercially successful GLP-1 receptor agonist and has evolved into a multi-indication platform molecule. The once-weekly subcutaneous formulation (Ozempic, 0.5–2.0 mg) is approved for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk reduction. Wegovy (semaglutide 2.4 mg) is approved for chronic weight management, cardiovascular risk reduction in overweight/obese adults without T2D (SELECT trial), heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF, STEP-HFpEF), obstructive sleep apnea (SURMOUNT-OSA), and chronic kidney disease protection (FLOW trial). Rybelsus is the oral tablet formulation for T2D.

The SELECT trial (N=17,604, NEJM 2023) was a watershed: semaglutide reduced MACE by 20% in obese patients without diabetes, establishing obesity itself as a cardiovascular disease target — not merely a risk factor. This transformed the regulatory and commercial framework for GLP-1 therapy. The FLOW trial subsequently demonstrated renal protection in patients with T2D and CKD, adding a third major organ system. The EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials — testing semaglutide in early Alzheimer's disease — represent perhaps the highest-stakes clinical question of the decade: if GLP-1 agonism shows cognitive benefit, it would transform the neurodegeneration development landscape.

Tirzepatide: The Dual Agonist Reshaping the Competitive Landscape

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro for T2D, Zepbound for obesity, Eli Lilly) is a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist that has become the dominant product in the weight loss market by efficacy. SURMOUNT-1 demonstrated 22.5% mean weight loss at 72 weeks at the highest dose — the greatest weight reduction ever seen in a pharmaceutical obesity trial, superior to Wegovy's ~15% in STEP-1. In T2D, SURPASS-2 showed tirzepatide's superiority over semaglutide 1.0 mg on both HbA1c reduction and weight loss.

Lilly's Phase 3 expansion program for tirzepatide includes: SURMOUNT-NASH (liver disease), SUMMIT (HFpEF — tirzepatide approved based on this trial), SURMOUNT-OSA, SURMOUNT-MMO (MACE outcomes in obesity without T2D, mirroring SELECT), and multiple T1D/T2D programs. The SURMOUNT-MMO trial will be the pivotal cardiovascular outcomes trial that, if positive, would allow tirzepatide to claim the cardiovascular risk reduction indication Wegovy already holds — establishing parity in the most commercially valuable label component.

The Next Generation: Retatrutide, Orforglipron, and Oral GLP-1

The competition beyond semaglutide and tirzepatide is shaping up around two axes: superior efficacy and oral convenience.

Retatrutide (GLP-1/GIP/Glucagon Tri-Agonist): Full Phase 3 Expansion

Retatrutide (LY3437943, Eli Lilly) is a tri-agonist targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon receptors simultaneously. Phase 2 data published in NEJM (2023) showed 24.2% weight loss at 48 weeks — exceeding even tirzepatide's Phase 2 data at comparable timepoints. The glucagon component adds thermogenic and lipolytic activity that may produce additive weight loss beyond the GLP-1/GIP combination.

Lilly's Phase 3 retatrutide program has expanded substantially through 2025–2026:

• TRIUMPH-Outcomes (NCT06383390) — cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic CVD and/or CKD. The definitive retatrutide outcomes trial, recruited since April 2024.
• Retatrutide in obesity (no T2D) (NCT07357415) — pure obesity Phase 3, recruiting since January 2026. Core registration trial for the obesity indication.
• Retatrutide in obesity or overweight (NCT07232719) — recruiting since November 2025. Paired registration-enabling Phase 3.
• Retatrutide weight maintenance (NCT06859268) — tests if retatrutide sustains weight loss long-term; critical for demonstrating durable benefit vs. weight regain after treatment cessation. Active since March 2025.
• Retatrutide in obesity + chronic low back pain (NCT07035093) — Phase 3 in an indication where weight reduction mechanically and metabolically reduces musculoskeletal pain. Recruiting since May 2025. Part of Lilly's broad "comorbidity expansion" strategy.

If Phase 3 confirms Phase 2 efficacy, retatrutide would establish Lilly as the leader in both the second-generation (tirzepatide, ~22% weight loss) and third-generation (retatrutide, target ~24–25%) market simultaneously — a monopolistic position at the top of the weight loss efficacy ladder.

Orforglipron: The ATTAIN Outcomes Program

Orforglipron (LY3502970, Eli Lilly) is a non-peptide, small-molecule oral GLP-1 receptor agonist taken as a once-daily tablet without the absorption-enhancement formulation required for oral semaglutide (Rybelsus). Phase 2 data showed 14.7% weight loss at 36 weeks and meaningful HbA1c reduction in T2D.

What's transformative is Lilly's 2025–2026 ATTAIN outcomes program for orforglipron — an unusually broad parallel Phase 3 outcomes strategy:

• ATTAIN-Outcomes (NCT07241390) — cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with atherosclerotic CVD and/or CKD. Recruiting since December 2025. The pivotal outcomes trial for orforglipron, directly mirroring SELECT (semaglutide) and the FLOW CKD trial.
• ATTAIN-Hypertension (NCT06948435 / NCT06952530) — Phase 3 in patients with hypertension and obesity/overweight. Recruiting since April 2025. Directly targets hypertension as a standalone indication — unprecedented for a GLP-1 RA.
• Orforglipron in peripheral artery disease (NCT07223593) — Phase 3 recruiting October 2025. Tests whether metabolic and vascular benefits of GLP-1 extend to PAD patients.
• Orforglipron in stress urinary incontinence (NCT07202884) — Phase 3 in obese/overweight women with SUI. Recruiting September 2025. Weight loss in obesity mechanically reduces SUI — but this is being formally tested as a labeled indication.
• Orforglipron in osteoarthritis of the knee (NCT07153471) — Phase 3 in obesity + knee OA. Recruiting September 2025.
• ATTAIN master protocol for obesity/overweight (NCT06972459, NCT06993792) — core weight management registration trials, recruiting since May 2025.

The breadth of the ATTAIN program reveals Lilly's strategy: register orforglipron across 6+ indications simultaneously, leveraging the oral tablet advantage to reach patients who refuse injections (estimated at ~50–60% of eligible obese patients). If ATTAIN-Outcomes is positive, orforglipron would be the first oral GLP-1 with cardiovascular outcomes data — a commercially pivotal label component. The ATTAIN-Hypertension trial, if successful, could create a new category: an oral GLP-1 specifically promoted for blood pressure control in obese patients.

CagriSema (Cagrilintide + Semaglutide)

CagriSema (Novo Nordisk) is a fixed-ratio combination of cagrilintide (amylin/IAPP receptor agonist, 2.4 mg) and semaglutide (GLP-1 RA, 2.4 mg), designed to deliver superior weight loss through complementary mechanisms. Phase 2 REDEFINE data showed ~15% weight loss vs ~9% for semaglutide alone. Phase 3 REDEFINE trials compare CagriSema head-to-head against semaglutide and are designed to establish superiority. Novo Nordisk's strategic bet: if CagriSema proves superior to semaglutide and competitive with tirzepatide, it extends the semaglutide franchise into the next decade. Novo Nordisk has now extended the cagrilintide monotherapy program as well — two Phase 3 trials (NCT07220642 in obesity; NCT07220759 in obesity + T2D) launched November 2025 to test cagrilintide as a standalone agent.

Tirzepatide expansion: inflammatory conditions

Eli Lilly has launched two novel Phase 3b trials combining tirzepatide with its immunology franchise:

• Tirzepatide + mirikizumab in ulcerative colitis (NCT06937086) — obese/overweight UC patients. Recruiting since June 2025. Tests if metabolic improvement (GLP-1) + IL-23 inhibition (mirikizumab) produces additive efficacy in obesity-driven inflammatory bowel disease.
• Tirzepatide + mirikizumab in Crohn's disease (NCT06937099) — same concept in CD. Recruiting since June 2025.

This combinatorial approach reflects recognition that obesity is a driver of IBD severity and that dual metabolic + immunologic targeting may produce disease-modification beyond either agent alone.

GLP-1 in NASH/MASH: A Multi-Sponsor Race

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) — now renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) — is one of the largest unmet needs in hepatology, with an estimated 115 million patients globally and no broadly approved treatments until recently. GLP-1 receptor agonists reduce liver fat through multiple mechanisms: improved insulin sensitivity, reduced hepatic lipogenesis, direct GLP-1 receptor activation in hepatocytes, and weight-loss-mediated improvement in metabolic drivers.

The pivotal ESSENCE trial (NCT04822181, Novo Nordisk) is testing semaglutide 2.4 mg versus placebo in NASH/MASH patients with liver fibrosis (F2-F3). Phase 2 data from the NASH semaglutide trial demonstrated significant histologic improvement, with 59% of semaglutide-treated patients achieving NASH resolution (vs 17% placebo). Phase 3 recruitment has been ongoing; results are expected to support a MASH regulatory filing.

Eli Lilly's SURMOUNT-NASH Phase 3 trial evaluates tirzepatide in MASH with moderate-to-advanced fibrosis. Phase 2 data (NEJM 2024) were striking: 51% of patients on tirzepatide 15 mg achieved the primary endpoint of MASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis vs 13% for placebo — among the strongest Phase 2 results in MASH history. Phase 3 is evaluating liver-specific endpoints including resolution of fibrosis by ≥1 stage.

For competitive intelligence professionals, the GLP-1/MASH space overlaps with a separate competitive cluster of FXR agonists (obeticholic acid, cilofexor), THRβ agonists (resmetirom — approved 2024), and PPAR agonists (seladelpar). GLP-1 agents compete primarily in the metabolic-burden MASH subgroup (high BMI, T2D co-morbidity) where weight loss and insulin sensitization are the dominant drivers. See our NASH/MAFLD clinical trials tracker for the complete competitive landscape.

GLP-1 in Alzheimer's Disease: The High-Stakes Experiment

The EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials (NCT04777396, NCT04777409) are Novo Nordisk's Phase 3 bet on GLP-1 agonism in early Alzheimer's disease. The biological rationale: GLP-1 receptors are expressed in the hippocampus, cerebral cortex, and hypothalamus; neuroinflammation and insulin resistance in the brain are implicated in Alzheimer's pathology; and observational data from diabetes cohorts showed lower dementia incidence in GLP-1 RA users vs other antidiabetic drug classes.

These trials are enrolling patients with early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (MCI to mild dementia) with biomarker confirmation (amyloid PET or CSF). Primary endpoints include cognitive and functional decline measures. If positive, the commercial implications are enormous — GLP-1 agents would enter a market currently defined by Leqembi (lecanemab) and anti-amyloid antibodies, with a completely different safety profile and oral/once-weekly convenience. If negative, it would test whether the observational GLP-1/dementia signals reflect confounding rather than causation.

Related Clinical Trial Trackers

• Obesity Clinical Trials Tracker — all obesity pharmacotherapy trials including GLP-1, amylin, NPY, and combination programs
• Novo Nordisk Pipeline Monitor — complete semaglutide, CagriSema, icodec, and hemophilia pipeline
• Eli Lilly Pipeline Monitor — complete tirzepatide, retatrutide, orforglipron, and oncology pipeline
• NASH / MAFLD Clinical Trials Tracker — GLP-1 vs FXR agonists vs THRβ agonists in liver disease
• Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials — anti-amyloid, tau-targeting, and GLP-1 programs in cognitive decline
• Heart Failure Clinical Trials — GLP-1 HFpEF programs alongside SGLT2 inhibitors and other CV therapies

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