We Can Now Show You Which Trials Are at Risk

Reading a trial's history one record at a time will not tell you that something moved somewhere across a portfolio of competitors. Our new Trials at Risk feature watches the whole watchlist and surfaces the ones slipping.

June 7, 2026 · Data from ClinicalTrials.gov
Correction, July 21, 2026. An earlier version of this post said that ClinicalTrials.gov does not retain the previous values of a trial's fields, and that when a sponsor changes a completion date the old value is gone. That is wrong.

ClinicalTrials.gov keeps every version of every trial record, and has for years. Any study page has a Record History tab where you can select two versions and see exactly what changed between them, including an option to show only the modules that changed. We should have checked this before publishing, and we did not.

What this post gets right is narrower than what it originally claimed. Reading that history means opening one trial at a time, and there is no way on ClinicalTrials.gov to watch a set of sponsors or diseases and be told when something in that set moves. That is the gap Trials at Risk fills. The figures below are unchanged.

ClinicalTrials.gov keeps every version of every trial record, and its Record History tab will show you exactly what changed between any two of them. What it will not do is watch a portfolio for you. To catch a primary completion date moving out by two years, you have to already suspect that trial and go open it.

DataLookout has been taking a full daily snapshot of every trial we track since March. That history is what makes our newest feature possible. Trials at Risk surfaces a sponsor's active trials that are showing warning signs, with the before-and-after behind each one.

What the scan found

Across the active trials we track, here is what was showing at-risk signals as of June 5, 2026:

2,443
Active trials at risk
1,764
Completion dates pushed
254
Enrollment cut
587
Endpoints changed

Those 2,443 trials span 1,159 distinct lead sponsors — this is not a handful of outliers. 152 trials are showing more than one signal at the same time, and 289 have had their completion date pushed out by more than a full year. Every trial here is active (recruiting, active and not recruiting, not yet recruiting, or enrolling by invitation). Finished trials are never counted.

Why this is hard to see manually: none of these are headline events. There's no press release when a completion date moves or an enrollment target drops. The change posts quietly to ClinicalTrials.gov, and nothing announces it. You would have to open each trial and compare versions to find it. Multiply that across a watchlist of competitors and it stops being practical by hand.

The three signals

Trials at Risk watches for three specific, observable changes — all drawn from the trial's own record, not from any prediction or model:

Completion date pushed out

The primary completion date moved later by 30 days or more. The flagship delay signal — a program is taking longer than the sponsor last told the registry.

Enrollment cut

The enrollment target was revised downward. Often the first quiet sign a study is being scaled back or restructured.

Endpoint changed

A primary endpoint was modified. A change to what the trial is measuring — material context for anyone reading the eventual readout.

Each at-risk trial is ranked by the severity of its recent changes over a 90-day window, so a study that pushed its date by two years and cut enrollment surfaces above one with a single minor edit.

What it looks like on real trials

Here's the actual Trials at Risk view for one sponsor — Regeneron — with the exact changes as recorded on ClinicalTrials.gov:

DataLookout's Trials at Risk view for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: 13 trials at risk, ranked by severity, each showing the recent change — a pushed completion date, cut enrollment, or a modified endpoint.
The Trials at Risk view for a single sponsor, ranked by severity of recent changes over a 90-day window. Active trials only — a finished trial is never counted.
To be clear about what this is — and isn't. An at-risk flag is an observation, not a prediction. We are not saying these trials will fail or terminate. We are saying their key parameters have moved recently, and that movement is worth knowing about if you're tracking the program. What it means is your call.

Who it's for

Where to find it

Trials at Risk is live in the dashboard now. Pick a sponsor you follow, and the page surfaces that sponsor's at-risk trials, ranked by severity. Free accounts see a preview; the full list — every at-risk trial with the before-and-after behind each one — is included on the paid plans ($49 and $149 per month). As always, the underlying data is ClinicalTrials.gov, updated daily.

See which of your watched trials are at risk

Pick a sponsor and surface its trials showing warning signs, ranked by severity.

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Data & methodology: All figures from ClinicalTrials.gov, processed by DataLookout's daily snapshot pipeline. "At risk" counts active trials (overall status of Recruiting, Active not recruiting, Not yet recruiting, or Enrolling by invitation) with at least one of three changes recorded in the prior 90 days: a primary completion date moved later by 30+ days, a downward revision to the enrollment target, or a change to a primary endpoint. Finished trials are excluded. Counts are recomputed daily and reflect a point-in-time snapshot. Data current as of June 5, 2026.

External sources cited: None — all data is drawn directly from ClinicalTrials.gov trial records.
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